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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.