Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in the region have been put on hold.

Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting have been overstated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves Washington without results

The on-again, off-again summit is another twist in Trump's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he declared.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.

At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

The president loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's summit in the summer yielded no concrete results.

The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.

In July, Putin consented to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.

Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.

The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.

"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he said.

Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.

He has finally decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.

During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.

Blake Reed
Blake Reed

Elara Vance is a seasoned poker strategist with over a decade of experience in competitive play and coaching.